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· By comparison, the US yield curve doesn’t look so flat anymore. Japan’s yield curve is essentially flat from the one-month yield through the 10-year yield – a spread of 5 basis points, compared to the US spread of 101 basis points.
The muni yield curve is still quite steep compared to Treasuries and offers better after-tax return/risk characteristics. Munis that are out 10-20 years offer very attractive tax equivalent yields.
Yield Curve: A yield curve is a line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates . The most frequently reported yield.
What’s worrying is that, right now, the US yield curve is flattening fast and is now the flattest it’s been since 2007, which was of course just ahead of the global financial crisis. So what.
· The spread, or yield curve, between the 3-month and 10-year treasury notes just broke the longest streak ever of being above 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point. The two maturities were last below that level in September 2007, a run of 3,009 trading days, according to.
· US Yield Curve as a Recession Indicator The more widely followed part of the US yield curve is arguably the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes. As Ed Perks, CIO of Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions, points out in this article, when that part of the yield curve has inverted in the past, (falls below zero), US recessions have.
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The financial crisis showed up in the yield curve, with rates falling since last month as investors fled to quality. The 3-month rate dropped from an already tiny 0.07 percent down to a miniscule 0.02 percent (for the week ending December 12), the lowest level since the treasury constant maturity series started in 1982.
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· Ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) there has been an obsession with looking for the next recession. In this regard, over the last year or so there has been increasing concern that a flattening yield curve in the US – ie the gap between long-term bond yields and short-term borrowing rates has been declining – is signalling a downturn and, if it goes negative, a recession in the US.